1000+ unique media and news posts every 24 hours…
For some reason, there seem to be a ton of Bo Nix haters who don’t want to give him credit for the success he’s having in his rookie season. Many of those haters claim to watch film to form opinions on his lack of quarterback success.
The problem is that what these critics claim to see on film is contradicted by facts. The Denver Broncos The rookie quarterback is performing well in his first season and it’s time to expose the cold, hard facts that contradict these opinions.
Let’s get the most important part of this analysis out of the way. NFL statistics such as air yards, completions, attempts, etc. – these are observable facts. The ball traveled 10 yards through the air from the line of scrimmage. The measurement of that result is a fact.
Second, basic math can be applied to represent calculations such as completion rate and pass grade. Unless you believe that elementary mathematics is not real, applying it to these facts will provide material for comparison. For this analysis, the only calculation is percentage completion, which is a simple division.
Those who argue that Nix isn’t good enough as a quarterback typically say he can’t throw the ball well or at all to certain parts of the field. They argue that deep balls don’t show off a quarterback’s arm strength and that short passes are easy in the NFL. Let’s examine those claims.
Below is every Nix throw mapped by air yards and the result of that pass was compared side-by-side to every Patrick Mahomes pass in Week 12. Mahomes is hailed by some as the best quarterback in the league and even the best in the history.
Let’s take a look at the air gauge range from 10 to 19 air gauges. This is the area where quarterbacks can have the most trouble, especially if they have a weak arm.
Nix took 73 attempts to reach this depth. He does not favor the left, center or right areas of the pitch too much as he has a solid base across all areas. He has completed 50% in the 15 to 19 air yard range and 49% in the 10 to 14 range. He has four touchdowns to one interception.
Mahomes has also attempted 73 passes to those same areas. He has a better completion percentage. 59% and 63%, which is a significant difference from Nix.
However, Mahomes has thrown one touchdown pass and five interceptions. The completion percentage is fine, but most coaches would rather have the four touchdowns and one interception that Nix has than the one touchdown and five interceptions that Mahomes has thrown.
Additionally, if you remove the first three games (Nix’s first-ever trio of NFL games), Nix has a more comparable completion percentage to Mahomes in the 10 to 14 air-yard range at 67% to 73% and in the 15 to 19 air yards -yard range from 55% to 59%.
Remember, Nix is a rookie and Mahomes is a multiple Super Bowl-winning veteran who the media drools over every throw. For additional context, Josh Allen is in the MVP discussion, and his completion percentage on those same ranges isn’t as good as Nix’s. Allen is completing 45% of his passes to both ranges. No one would argue that Allen has a weak arm.
The argument that Nix is just a check-down quarterback is flawed, as he has thrown nine fewer passes that cover less than 10 air yards than Mahomes. As a rookie, Nix holds his own in the toughest ranges to throw the ball in the NFL. He can pass the ball into the area of the field that many claim is difficult for quarterbacks, and he does it with solid success in his first season.
The opinions of the “film don’t lie” gurus are not supported by facts. They often make the same two mistakes as 99% of the rest of part-time movie viewers.
First, they do not know what they are seeing or have any context from which to understand what they are seeing. Second, they have a preconceived idea of a player, and their eyes are more focused on watching than on film.
Analysts can tamper with data in the same way. Therefore, the image above is all factual data without hiding any passes, calculating a number, making other very complicated calculations, or expressing opinions. It is visible to everyone and to everyone who is willing to believe their eyes.
Nix is having a good rookie campaign and there is reason for Broncos Country to be excited about the future of the team’s new quarterback.
Follow Denver Broncos on SI/Mile High Huddle X And Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos livestream podcasts!
1000+ unique media and news posts every 24 hours…